Tyler Higbee Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 11:35 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-144).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +113 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to total 6.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been much more involved in his offense's passing game this season (22.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (15.5%).
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Tyler Higbee has been among the leading TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.6 receptions per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.2 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (68.5%) versus TEs since the start of last season (68.5%).