Tyler Higbee Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Tyler Higbee has run a route on 84.9% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to garner 6.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.46 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
Tyler Higbee's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.6% to 67.0%.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (66.1%) versus TEs since the start of last season (66.1%).

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