Tyler Higbee Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Tyler Higbee has run a route on 85.1% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to notch 6.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Rams are an enormous 10.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.
Tyler Higbee's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 54.2%.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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