Tyler Higbee Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-359/+296).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -359.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.
Tyler Higbee rates as one of the leading TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 30.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.
Tyler Higbee has been one of the most effective receivers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a stellar 8.82 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.
Our trusted projections expect Tyler Higbee to be much less involved in his team's pass game this week (3.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.2% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.3%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (71.3%).