Tyler Higbee Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 10, 2026 8:42 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-108/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) last year.
When talking about air yards, Tyler Higbee ranks in the towering 75th percentile among TEs last year, accumulating a striking 21.0 per game.
Tyler Higbee grades out as one of the top pass-catching tight ends last year, averaging a stellar 32.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
With an outstanding 9.1 adjusted yards per target (79th percentile) last year, Tyler Higbee ranks among the leading tight ends in the pass game in football.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Rams to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and running stats decreased) in light of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.
Our trusted projections expect Tyler Higbee to be much less involved in his team's passing game in this contest (6.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (11.3% in games he has played).
With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) last year, Tyler Higbee has been among the top TE receiving threats in football in the open field.