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Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+209/-317).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +210 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +209.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.Tyler Higbee has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 19.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 90th percentile among TEs.Tyler Higbee has totaled a colossal 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among TEs.Tyler Higbee's 31.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 86th percentile for TEs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Rams are an enormous 10.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.Tyler Higbee's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 54.2%.The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
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