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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+122/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -162.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per play.

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to earn 5.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.

Tyler Conklin has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 15.7% this year, which ranks in the 87th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) vs. TEs this year (64.6%).

The New England Patriots defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a mere 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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