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Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+152/-214).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -179 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -214.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 69.5 plays per game.Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 8th-most in football.THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to accrue 5.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.Tyler Conklin's receiving skills have gotten a boost this season, totaling 5.3 yards per game vs a mere 3.5 last season.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.Tyler Conklin has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 85.5% of snaps vs just 73.3% last year.The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
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