Tyler Conklin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+137/-173).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -173.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jets rank as the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to notch 5.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Conklin has been among the top TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.9 receptions per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
Tyler Conklin has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this season, staying in the game for 89.7% of snaps vs just 89.7% last season.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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