Tyler Conklin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Tyler Conklin has run a route on 72.0% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to notch 4.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Tyler Conklin has been among the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging an impressive 3.4 receptions per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.