Tyler Conklin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
Tyler Conklin has run a route on 73.8% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to accrue 5.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a measly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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