Tyler Conklin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to earn 4.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Conklin's 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 31.7.
Tyler Conklin has been among the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 3.5 receptions per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (69.1%) versus tight ends this year (69.1%).
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have utilized play action on a mere 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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