Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 130.6 total plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
In this game, Tyler Conklin is anticipated by the projection model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile among tight ends with 4.7 targets.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 58.8% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Jets have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.9 plays per game.
After accruing 38.0 air yards per game last season, Tyler Conklin has produced significantly less this season, now pacing 28.0 per game.
The New York O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
This year, the strong Chargers pass defense has given up the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a meager 3.7 YAC.

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