Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
The predictive model expects Tyler Conklin to accumulate 4.5 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
With a sizeable 13.6% Target% (78th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin stands among the TEs with the most usage in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Jets to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Jets have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.4 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Las Vegas Raiders, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.8 per game) this year.
Tyler Conklin has put up quite a few less air yards this year (31.0 per game) than he did last year (38.0 per game).
The New York offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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