Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Mike White in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to total 4.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Conklin has posted many more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (29.0 per game).
Tyler Conklin's 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 31.7.
Tyler Conklin has been among the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a stellar 34.0 yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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