Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Tyler Conklin has compiled a monstrous 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Conklin has been among the best pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 34.0 yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (62.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to be a much smaller piece of his team's pass game this week (9.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.2% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.6%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (67.6%).
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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