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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Tyler Conklin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+440/-1011).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per play.

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (14.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (3.4% in games he has played).

Tyler Conklin has posted a whopping 31.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) vs. TEs this year (64.6%).

The New England Patriots defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a mere 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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