Tyler Boyd Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 5, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.
This week's spread suggests an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are giant -10.5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Tyler Boyd has been more prominently incorporated in his team's passing game.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are predicted by the projections to run just 61.5 plays on offense in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville cornerbacks rank as the 4th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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