Tyler Boyd Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+139/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Boyd to accrue 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Boyd to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game this week (21.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals have used play action on a mere 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.