Tyler Boyd Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +119 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tyler Boyd has been much less involved in his team's pass attack this year (12.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (17.5%).
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.1%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (64.1%).

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