Tyler Boyd Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +111 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tyler Boyd has run a route on 88.0% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
Tyler Boyd has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL, catching a stellar 74.0% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
The New York Jets pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Completion% in football (68.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (68.5%).
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized play action on a measly 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.