Tyler Boyd Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.6% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Tyler Boyd has been a much smaller piece of his team's offense this season, playing on just 63.1% of snaps compared to 76.1% last season.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in the league (69.8%) to WRs this year (69.8%).
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box vs. opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Tyler Boyd's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 76.7% to 73.7%.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 8th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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