Tyler Boyd Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+114/-146).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Tyler Boyd has been a less important option in his team's offense this year, playing on just 61.9% of snaps compared to 76.1% last year.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tyler Boyd's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 76.7% to 73.7%.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have incorporated play action on a lowly 18.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.