Tyler Boyd Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Boyd to notch 7.3 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Boyd to be a more important option in his team's air attack this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

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