Tyler Boyd Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+165/-231).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -231.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Boyd to be much more involved in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (18.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.0% in games he has played).
Tyler Boyd has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (57.0 per game) than he did last year (42.0 per game).
Tyler Boyd has been among the best possession receivers in football, hauling in a stellar 77.1% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 85th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 8th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.62 per game this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.

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