Tyler Boyd Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+267/-447).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -388 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -447.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Boyd to be much more involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (12.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).
Tyler Boyd has put up significantly more air yards this season (47.0 per game) than he did last season (42.0 per game).
Tyler Boyd ranks in the 86th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.40 per game.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 10th-highest Completion% in football (67.8%) to WRs this year (67.8%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Tyler Boyd's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.5% to 69.3%.

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