Tyler Boyd Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tyler Boyd

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Boyd

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Boyd Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+231/-363).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +239 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +231.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Boyd to be a more important option in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (12.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (4.8% in games he has played).
Tyler Boyd grades out in the 76th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.30 per game.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.1%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (64.1%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has conceded the 10th-least passing TDs in the league to WRs: 0.85 per game since the start of last season.

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