Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+331/-404).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -404.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Cardinals to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 61.5% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.87 seconds per snap.
Tyler Allgeier has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 10.0% this year, which ranks in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Tyler Allgeier's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 87.2% to 100.0%.
The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (89.2%) versus RBs since the start of last season (89.2%).

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier weather this week.
Tyler Allgeier has accumulated a feeble -3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 10th percentile among running backs.
The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The receiving TD line reads "0" on the back of Tyler Allgeier's trading card since the start of last season.
With a terrific rate of 0.35 touchdowns on the ground per game (84th percentile), Tyler Allgeier stands among the leading rushing TD-scorers in the NFL since the start of last season.