Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Tyler Allgeier has played on 50.8% of his offense's snaps since the start of last season, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Tyler Allgeier has picked up 64.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (91st percentile).
Tyler Allgeier has been among the leading RBs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 3.32 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 10th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.50 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Tyler Allgeier's rushing effectiveness has tailed off this year, notching a mere 3.88 yards-per-carry vs a 4.95 rate last year.
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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