Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 45.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Falcons this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
Out of all RBs, Tyler Allgeier grades out in the 81st percentile for carries this year, making up 43.5% of the workload in his offense's running game.
The Atlanta offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in football last year at executing run-blocking assingments.

Favors Under

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
Tyler Allgeier has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (42.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
Tyler Allgeier's ground efficiency has worsened this year, averaging just 3.24 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.95 rate last year.

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