Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
Tyler Allgeier has grinded out 65.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (89th percentile).
Tyler Allgeier's running effectiveness (4.95 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (86th percentile among running backs).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to be much less involved in his team's running game this week (26.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (40.3% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers linebackers grade out as the best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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