Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 50.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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