Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+297/-533).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +345 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +297.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 9th-most run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 44.3% red zone run rate.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Allgeier to be much less involved in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (23.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (39.8% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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