Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+285/-385).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.6% red zone run rate.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in run blocking.
Opposing offenses have run for the most touchdowns in the league (1.70 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.
The Chicago Bears defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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