Tyler Allgeier Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+122/-159).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Falcons this year (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
The Atlanta O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game stats across the board.
When it comes to defensive tackles getting after the quarterback, Carolina's unit has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 46.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Tyler Allgeier has been used less as a potential target this year (18.0% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (39.1%).
Tyler Allgeier profiles as one of the weakest pass-game running backs this year, averaging a lowly 0.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 25th percentile among running backs.
Tyler Allgeier's 71.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a remarkable drop-off in his receiving prowess over last season's 93.8% figure.

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