Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
Tyler Allgeier has run a route on 38.4% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 10th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.50 seconds per play.
Tyler Allgeier has notched a puny -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 11th percentile among RBs.
Tyler Allgeier has been among the bottom running backs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 19th percentile.
The Detroit Lions defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 22.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.

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