Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Tyler Allgeier has been among the best possession receivers in the league among RBs, completing an impressive 93.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 75th percentile.
Tyler Allgeier has been among the most efficient receivers in the NFL among RBs, averaging a terrific 7.84 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
Tyler Allgeier has notched a paltry -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 9th percentile among running backs.