Tyler Allgeier Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyler Allgeier

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Allgeier

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Allgeier Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 44.1% run rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 137.0 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.9 plays per game.
As it relates to run-blocking (and the importance it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Falcons profiles as the 2nd-best in football last year.

Favors Under

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
Our trusted projections expect Tyler Allgeier to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game in this week's game (29.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.7% in games he has played).
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New Orleans's LB corps has been tremendous this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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