Tyjae Spears Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Touchdowns

Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+529/-660).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -660.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are massive underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Titans to pass on 59.9% of their downs: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
The model projects Tyjae Spears to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the goal line in this contest (9.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Tyjae Spears has been in the 80th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 14.5 mark since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see only 124.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 9th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans since the start of last season (only 55.2 per game on average).
As it relates to air yards, Tyjae Spears ranks in the paltry 1st percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing just -9.0 per game.
Tyjae Spears's 63.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a material decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 91.0% mark.
Since the start of last season, Tyjae Spears has not caught any touchdowns through the air since the start of last season.