Tyjae Spears Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Touchdowns

Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2026

Updated Sep 30, 2026 2:07 PM EST

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+529/-660).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -660.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are massive underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
The model projects Tyjae Spears to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the goal line in this contest (9.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Tyjae Spears has been in the 80th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 14.5 mark since the start of last season.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Tennessee Titans profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Right now, the 8th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Tennessee Titans.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see only 124.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 9th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans since the start of last season (only 55.2 per game on average).
As it relates to air yards, Tyjae Spears ranks in the paltry 1st percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing just -9.0 per game.
Tyjae Spears's 63.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a material decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 91.0% mark.