Tyjae Spears Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Tennessee Titans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+571/-720).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Tennessee Titans.
Tyjae Spears has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Tyjae Spears places in the 87th percentile for RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a colossal 15.6 mark since the start of last season.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Tennessee Titans grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the feeble New York Giants pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 88.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 4th-largest rate in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Titans to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
With a 56.2% rate of running the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 6th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL in this regard has been the Titans.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
When talking about air yards, Tyjae Spears ranks in the lowly 1st percentile among running backs since the start of last season, with just -10.0 per game.
Tyjae Spears's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 91.0% to 63.2%.