Tyjae Spears Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Touchdowns

Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-360).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -3477 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -360.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may drop.
Tyjae Spears has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.9% last year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With a terrific 91.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (85th percentile) last year, Tyjae Spears places as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among RBs.
Last year, the porous Jets defense has been gouged for a staggering 0.65 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the highest rate in football.
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, New York's safety corps has been lousy last year, ranking as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Tyjae Spears to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game near the goal line in this week's game (42.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been last year (28.0% in games he has played).
Tyjae Spears has compiled a puny -10.0 air yards per game last year: just 1st percentile among running backs.
With a lousy rate of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Tyjae Spears ranks among the worst receiving touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to running backs last year.
Last year, the anemic Jets run defense has been gouged for a massive 1.18 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 6th-worst rate in football.