Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tyjae Spears

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 46.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see just 130.9 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
Tyjae Spears's ground efficiency (4.74 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (83rd percentile among RBs).
Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in football (132 per game) versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's safety corps has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
The Tennessee Titans have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.

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