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Tyjae Spears

Tyjae Spears Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Tyjae Spears Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Titans will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Mason Rudolph this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.

In this week's contest, Tyjae Spears is expected by the projections to position himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.6 targets.

Tyjae Spears's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 79.3% to 92.4%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 57.9% pass rate.

The predictive model expects the Titans to run the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Tyjae Spears has been much less involved in his team's passing game this year (9.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (14.8%).

As it relates to pass protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Tennessee Titans ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.

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