Tyjae Spears Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tyjae Spears

NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
In this contest, Tyjae Spears is projected by the predictive model to find himself in the 78th percentile among running backs with 3.5 targets.
With an elite 13.0% Target% (93rd percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads in the league.
With an exceptional 2.5 adjusted catches per game (79th percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears ranks among the leading pass-game running backs in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans this year (just 52.0 per game on average).
The Titans offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
This year, the strong Falcons defense has surrendered a meager 75.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 5th-smallest rate in football.

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