Tyjae Spears Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see just 130.9 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
The model projects Tyjae Spears to accrue 3.7 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Tyjae Spears has been in the 92nd percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 19.7 mark this year.
Tyjae Spears ranks as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging an exceptional 2.7 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 53.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Tennessee Titans have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
This year, the tough Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered a measly 78.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 7th-lowest rate in the league.