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Tyjae Spears

Tyjae Spears Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

Tyjae Spears Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -180.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Titans offensive scheme to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.

The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the league (41.6 per game) this year.

In this game, Tyjae Spears is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 87th percentile among running backs with 4.1 targets.

Tyjae Spears rates in the 95th percentile for RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 20.4 figure this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Titans to pass on 55.7% of their downs: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Titans to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.

The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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