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Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-135/+105).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +105.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 127.8 total plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.The predictive model expects Tyjae Spears to garner 3.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.Tyjae Spears's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 79.3% to 100.0%.The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (46.0) vs. RBs this year.This year, the deficient Colts defense has allowed the 5th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a colossal 7.45 yards.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Titans rank as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.0% pass rate.The Tennessee Titans have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.5 plays per game.Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) typically cause lessened passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher ground volume.When talking about air yards, Tyjae Spears grades out in the measly 16th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -5.0 per game.Tyjae Spears's 15.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 22.1.
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