Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Tyjae Spears

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyjae Spears Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
A throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a -5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The projections expect Tyjae Spears to accumulate 4.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.
As it relates to air yards, Tyjae Spears grades out in the towering 91st percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a remarkable 5.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

Favors Under

At the moment, the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football (57.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Titans.
The predictive model expects the Titans to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
The the Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
With a subpar 3.3 adjusted yards per target (12th percentile) this year, Tyjae Spears ranks among the weakest pass-catching RBs in football.