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Ty Montgomery

Ty Montgomery Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Ty Montgomery Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-230).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 43.9% red zone run rate.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
  • The New England Patriots have used some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
  • The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
  • The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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