Ty Johnson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Ty Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Ty Johnson

RB · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Ty Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+525/-590).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense results when facing more favorable weather this week.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.
With a remarkable rate of 0.10 per game through the air (81st percentile), Ty Johnson places among the best receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to RBs since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Patriots run defense has given up a mere 0.65 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 9th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 46.3% red zone run rate.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
When talking about air yards, Ty Johnson grades out in the paltry 17th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, averaging just -2.0 per game.

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